Flying on Russian planes can be very dangerous in the future


New York (CNN Business) – As Economy of Russia As a result it has been increasingly plagued by severe Western sanctions Invasion of UkraineThe country’s important aviation industry could actually be affected.

There were Russian airlines Practically isolated From many parts of the world. But this is far from the problem of the sector. Russia’s domestic aviation sector could soon become a remnant of what it used to be due to restrictions imposed on its operations.

Sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union will prevent Russian airlines from providing spare parts or maintenance support to the world’s two largest aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus. The same goes for jet engine manufacturers.

This means that Russian airlines may exhaust the required parts in a few weeks or fly the aircraft without replacing the equipment recommended for safe operation.

“The Russian government’s priority does not include consumer protection and reliability,” said Charles Litchfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Geo-Economics, an international think tank.

Aeroflot, the main Russian airline, no longer has access Saber, Which provided the central network for airline ticket bookings. The airlines, which own 80% of the nearly 900 commercial aircraft in the Russian Navy, have been ordered to recall those aircraft by the end of this month. The declared value of the leased aircraft is estimated at $ 13.3 billion, according to data from aeronautical analysis firm Syria, although the actual market value may now be part of it.

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Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan leave Russia 0:50

“One year from now, Russia will no longer have any potential aviation sector,” said Richard Abulafia, CEO of Aerodynamic Advisory. In his view, the country’s aviation sector will soon find itself somewhere between the highly permitted industries of Iran and North Korea.

Airlines are important to Russia’s economy

This poses a serious problem for Russia’s overall economic activity.

Russia is the largest country in the world by area, twice as large as the United States. It must have a potential aviation industry to sustain its economy, Litchfield said.

“Russians do not fly like Americans. They do not fly to Siberia for vacations,” he said. But the aviation sector is an important link not only to international airlines but also to the domestic service of their energy sector due to the need to transport engineers, other workers and equipment to their remote oil fields.

“This is an important part of the Russian economy. They need that backbone. They need a career [aérea] Basic home care to support themselves, “said Lichfield.

Domestic operations of Russian airlines are only a fraction of the volume of domestic operations of the US aviation sector, accounting for about 7% of the number of aircraft operated last year, according to data from Circium. But unlike the American industry, which has fully recovered from the epidemic, in fact, it had 8% more domestic flights in 2021 than in 2019, while US domestic flights are 22% less than the total of 2019.

Russia’s economy will be hit by numerous sanctions, and its economy will not need those aircraft in 2022, or in the years to come. But the loss of essential parts and the possibility of hijacking planes could severely affect Russia’s ability to recover in the future.

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Planes can be captured

Some of the companies that lease aircraft to Russian carriers are Chinese companies, and China has not yet imposed its own restrictions. But Apulafia said Chinese leasing companies should also try to acquire Boeing and Airbus aircraft leased from Russian airlines. This is because these Chinese companies do not want to get into trouble in buying aircraft from Airbus or Boeing in the future.

“These are Western airlines. I don’t know how Chinese companies can deal with sanctions,” he said. “Most importantly, these jets are no longer supported with parts and maintenance. It’s a real problem if they lose their air quality certification, which can happen if proper records are not kept or they are cannibalized to parts.” .

China has already indicated that it will not ship spare parts for those aircraft to Russia, citing Valerie Gudino, head of the aviation qualification department of the country’s Federal Air Transport Agency, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

Russia will fight the embargo

Russia on Thursday announced plans for a new law to prevent such flights from leaving the country. But even after the sanctions are lifted, it will create a situation where its airlines will have trouble leasing aircraft in the future.

“Russian airlines want to do business with leasing companies, and they suspect they will need aircraft in the future,” said Betsy Snyder, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor’s who follows airlines. “But the powers that be in Russia say not to do that.”

Flight Russia

It would be much easier for the global aviation industry to live without Russia, which accounts for only 1% of total commercial aircraft purchases, than for Russia to live without US or EU aircraft or components. Russia’s efforts to build its own commercial jets have created suspicious security aircraft that will not find buyers in the international market.

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Can a big country like Russia survive without a modern and viable aviation industry?

“This is a study that has never been tested,” Abulafia said. “But it’s going to be.”